How do you characterize what a soccer “star” is? It is a player who makes the difference. If we are talking about a forward, he scores most of the team’s goals. If we’re talking about a midfielder, a playmaker, he is genius in his filigree and precision passes. If we’re talking about holding midfielder, he burns the whole center of the field, making a lot of successful defensive actions: rebounds, interceptions. If we’re talking about a fullback, it’s the same, but already in his defensive paradigm: perfectly reads the opponent, brilliantly chooses his positions, does not miss anyone, picks away.
And a star goalkeeper – he flies like a panther and catches everything that flies into his frame. In other words, the difference between a “star” player and an ordinary one is his outstanding efficiency. As a consequence, these actions of a player already create a spectacular effect, which further emphasizes his skill. But initially, the value of the “star” in the contribution to the victories of the team.
Let’s ask ourselves why most of the most high-profile soccer names are forwards or attacking midfielders? It’s simple. These men make the show. They beat the defense, they rush forward, they cross space with beautiful passes, they jump high, they score goals with beautiful kicks. There are star footworkers, defenders and goalkeepers, too. But alas, these roles do a lot of rough work that is not as visible. Therefore, it is the representatives of the attacking players who shine in the spotlight.
This is how it is and there is nothing to be done about it. Although they say “a good goalkeeper is half the team”. And a quality supporting midfielder is a big deal for a soccer team. However, it’s extremely rare that the top individual awards in the world of soccer can be won by someone who isn’t an attacking player.
In addition to the in-game benefits of a particular “star,” other bonuses for the club come next. There is the media component. Since this character is particularly loved by fans, this person is always in the spotlight. This person gathers a considerable crowd of fans in the stands, and this is additional money to the club treasury. Naturally, there is the sale of T-shirts and other symbols. All the boys, and many men in the city, for whose club plays a “star” soccer player, want a T-shirt with his name. There are advertising contracts, both personal and with the involvement of the club, and thus a benefit to him.
All of this leads to the “stars” having big contracts. But they earn their money. As we can see, not only on the field, but also in advertising, commercials. So any rich club tries to have at least one real star by the standards of world soccer. The most famous teams use these performers to form the entire playing squad. It goes so far that some “stars” are in the shadow of others. But that’s another story.
The “Star” Making The Difference
What is the essence of stardom we have figured out. Now let’s see how this factor affects the game of the team, the results, and, subsequently, the stakes. Different situations are possible, regarding the status of the “star” in the club. Such a great player is both a benefit and a risk for the team. When he is on the field and in good form, he is a reinforcement. The whole team plays for or through such a player. But when this performer is out of shape or misses a game due to injury or disqualification, the loss of this key link is a problem.
The other players are not used to acting in any other way, without their leader. So in the absence of a star, this team is even more vulnerable than one that hasn’t had such an outstanding soccer personality in the first place. This is where the star factor, the lineup factor in a more general sense, has a serious impact on betting. If the bettor doesn’t look at the lineups before the game, if he bets on the name of the club, but not on the available squad of performers before a particular match, it generates a lot of risks for him. The toughest mistake is to overlook the problems associated with a “star”.
If such a player is out and will not take the field at all, but the bettor still bets as if the leader of the team is in formation – this is a gross mistake. After all, “with” and “without” are two different teams. That’s how bettors lose bets. It’s kind of sensational. But if you look at the roster and realize that the team’s main strike force was missing, everything becomes understandable. Naturally, all the risks become clear to advanced forecasters before the game.
And that means there are decisions, betting adjustments. Usually such a dubious match is ignored at all, do not bet on it. It is not worth trying to guess how a decapitated favorite will play against a midfielder or even an outsider. It could come down to any of the three outcomes. Yes, and other outcomes can be anomalous, against the trends for this team. In addition to the practice if simply tracking team lineups, it is very important to watch the games themselves. At the very least, watch reviews, or watch match recordings in rewind mode.
“Stars are human beings, too. They have slumps, micro-injuries, and bad periods. A player can stop scoring, lose his form, and so on. You can see it only when you watch the game or game fragments in person. It turns out that kind of a star player goes to the field, but kind of not. So, noticing the decline of a particular important player, the bettor can decide to pause betting on this club until the situation evens out. The player who acts superficially, just sees the right name on the score sheet and bets himself, without even realizing the playing difficulties of the star player, is taking a big risk.
Here, with these two examples, related to tracking the presence of “stars” on the field, as well as their staying in good shape, we once again showed that for quality analysis and accurate predictions we need to work with the matchbook. Without tracking lineups and watching matches, our betting success rate will obviously be lower than if we take these things into account.
The Birth of a “STAR”
In soccer practice, there are situations when a team shoots up, makes a big breakthrough in terms of game quality. And this is not necessarily due to the arrival of a “star”, a super footballer. Often these modest teams do not have the financial means to invite ready, established and world-renowned stars. However, we all understand that stars are not born, they become stars through talent and hard work. Somewhere “stars” appear. It’s in these unpretentious teams.
A good coach sees the talent and helps the player discover it. That way a player makes progress and it translates into the quality of play of the whole team and the result. Of course, after that such a player will be bought by richer clubs. In addition to financial interest, the player himself motivates the desire for fame, international recognition. It’s a normal process. Each of today’s famous soccer stars, with few exceptions, grew up in the top teams. A strong analyst can and should notice such progress of a humble club.
Recognize what, or rather who caused such success. Identified at an early stage “star”, a player capable of making a difference – is a powerful joker, “trump card” in the bettor’s sleeve. With bookmakers, inertia, status, and past team results always have a big influence on quotes. If the bettor is more flexible and has considered the reasons for progress and qualitative breakthrough, he can bet on the team for a while, and he can catch the odds with an edge. And such predictions will be based on a new soccer star, which the mainstream has simply not yet recognized, not yet considered and evaluated by bookmakers.
Naturally, such an advantage should be taken advantage of. Identifying “stars” at an early stage of development is the province of serious forecasters and analysts. It takes years, a tremendous amount of experience, and a keen eye to reach this level of understanding of the game. This is something you can strive for if you are interested in the game itself and betting on it.
“TEAM STAR” vs. TEAM “STARS”
The progress of some modest teams may be due to other reasons. It’s not always the case that the team is dragged by a certain personality, an already famous or homegrown “star”. There are cases of so-called “all-star teams. None of the players stand out, but excellent results are achieved at the expense of chemistry, interaction and dedication. In these situations, you can say that there is a “star” but it is on the bench, it is the coach.
The person who could create a perfect playing ensemble out of mediocre performers is a genius. Understandably, such ensembles may not last that long, either the coach gets poached or half the roster gets bought out. But for a period of time, one can ride the upward trend of such collective progress.
While other analysts, including BC employees, can’t figure out the reason for success, don’t trust the objectivity of the team’s progress, the more flexible player rides such a trend and jumps on it, winning bid after bid, with increased performance. So you don’t always have to rely on the key role of specific performers, big star names. Often you have to watch the collective interaction. If the team really played well and began to produce results – that’s a reason to bet on it and earn as long as the trend is in force.